Angers v Marseille - FootX Preview - W06

FootX featured Game of the Week - Angers vs Marseille !

Game context

Last game of Ligue 1 gameweek 21 on Sunday 9th at 19:45 CET.
Marseille is back on track after a stressful win against Lyon last week while Angers won against Strasbourg in a national cup game. In the league, Angers is 5 points ahead of relegation zone and Marseille is a strong second.

Focus on last games

Thanks to recent games, Marseille is a solid second in the league. A bad game at Nice 2 weeks ago is now forgotten thanks to a win against the rival Olympique Lyonnais. This season, Marseille is very strong away (24 pts in 10 games, 1st with PSG).

In the mean time, Angers had a good run as well. 3 wins, 1 against Brest and two against direct opponents (Montpellier, Auxerre); 1 defeat in Lens and a draw against Le Havre. They also won a cup game on Wednesday against Strasbourg.

FootX computed team ELO also shows a +230 advantage for Marseille, showing the teams strength difference.

Statistics

Marseille creates way more chances than Angers:

• Marseille is close to 17 avg shots per game vs 12 (7.2 on target vs 3.4)
• Marseille played around 700 possessions vs only 420 for Angers
• Marseille uses a high pressure, fetching the ball at an average 58% of the field length, which is 10 points more than Angers
  • In the mean time, Angers fails to construct play from behind, with an average pass length of more than 5 meters.
• More stats on the app …

Teams formations

Angers is a very stable team formation wise. A 4-2-3-1 with the same players involved almost all time, with close to no rotations. Playing two games this week could be difficult in this condition.

Marseille is also stable. Neal Maupay recent arrival helped De Zerbi to have a constant number 9, very solid, allowing for more spaces for creators such as Greenwood.

Model prediction and decision

With FootX model estimating Marseille win at around 68% probability, Marseille’s recent results, Angers calendar and statistical analysis suggesting that Marseille should soffucate Angers, I will back Marseille to win @1.63 (Betfair).