Brest v PSG - FootX Preview - W07

FootX featured Game of the Week - Champions League Brest vs Paris St Germain !

Game context

1st leg of playoffs in this new Champions League format! Rankings led to a french battle between Brest, qualified after great games in Europe and PSG, who has to get past this round.

Focus on last games

PSG is looking strong, they found efficiency after lacking some in the beginning of the Champions League campaign. They beat City, gave a lesson to Stuttgart and had two huge wins against Brest and Monaco in the league.

Brest euphoria in Europe is now past. They faced large defeats against Real Madrid and PSG in the league. They still manage to have an incredible season, with this qualification and a correct Ligue 1 8th place.

FootX computed team ELO also shows a ~+200 advantage for PSG, showing the teams strength difference.

Statistics

Statistics tend to show PSG dominance:

• They shoot more, better and score a lot more in the last games.
• Passing-wise, advantage is clear as well, PSG handles possession with short passes. They still showed strong transition skills against Monaco.
• Brest is often keen to play and solid, finding chances even against big teams such as Real Madrid, PSG.
• Zone statistics show it: Brest is fetching the ball pretty high, and uses all zones in attack.
• See stats in the app !

Teams formations

Eric Roy’s team is really stable, the same players are consistently used in this formation.

PSG could have more options, the main question is 3 forwards with a stronger midfield (Zaire Emery, Kang In Lee) or 4 forwards with Kvara, Doué, Dembele and Barcola ?

About last game between Brest and PSG

2 words on the recent game won 5-2 by PSG:

• Passes network show a Brest team pretty low, with PSG in control in the 1st half.
• In late game (80’ to 97’), PSG is more straightforward and able to touch their 9 Ramos, showing PSG can adapt pretty fast their playstyle.

Model prediction and decision

FootX predictions show a big advantage for PSG, that has every needed weapon to get past this round, priced @1.39 on Betfair !